Obama weighs in on the Brexit debate in a 3 day UK visit clearly voicing an opinion that UK is stronger in the EU that outside.
BBC Video Interview on Brexit
It may yet backfire to have an outgoing US president to influence a UK referendum of this nature, but my hunch is it will help influence the 20% or so that are still undecided over to the Remain side.
Those firmly in favour of Brexit will only have had strengthened their resolve to leave by Obama's explicit comments.
With around 2 months to go the vote and following Obama's visit, i lower my probability of a Brexit from 40-45% to 30-35%. This should support the Pound in coming weeks, and we have already seen some upward creep in Cable, but suspect this main movement has yet to occur following the vote.
Risks are however asymmetrical, and skewed to the downside if indeed we wake up to a positive Brexit vote on June 24th.
BBC Video Interview on Brexit
It may yet backfire to have an outgoing US president to influence a UK referendum of this nature, but my hunch is it will help influence the 20% or so that are still undecided over to the Remain side.
Those firmly in favour of Brexit will only have had strengthened their resolve to leave by Obama's explicit comments.
With around 2 months to go the vote and following Obama's visit, i lower my probability of a Brexit from 40-45% to 30-35%. This should support the Pound in coming weeks, and we have already seen some upward creep in Cable, but suspect this main movement has yet to occur following the vote.
Risks are however asymmetrical, and skewed to the downside if indeed we wake up to a positive Brexit vote on June 24th.
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